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Friday, January 14, 2011


Es increible ver como el 1er dia de mes, logro el 93% de la subida anual de la bolsa en el 2010.

De los 143 puntos que subio el Mercado de USA en 2010, 134 se lograron en wl 1er dia de cada mes.

El 2011 empezo IGUAL, con el 1er dia de año registrando una subida de 1.2%.

 

Ahora veamos el 2010 mese por mes:

Diciembre subio en el 1er dia +26 puntos,

Noviembre       +1 punto,

Octubre            +5 puntos.

Septiembre el Mejor mes con +31 puntos

Agosto con     + 24 puntos

Julio con          - 3 puntos

Junio con       - 19 puntos.

Mayo con      + 16 Puntos

Abril con           +9 puntos

Marzo con      + 11 puntos.

Febrero con   + 15 puntos

Enero con     + 18 puntos

 

AQUI ESTA LA GRAFICA del 2010 / 2010 , marcando los 1eros dias de cada mes !!

 

2011-01-14__S&P500_Gains_on_1st_Day_of_Month

Wednesday, July 1, 2009


Introduction

With the double-whammy of falling home prices and a major bear market in stocks, and a global credit crisis on top of that, it is not surprising that the number of millionaires in the US and around the world plunged last year.

An interesting new report out last week from Capgemini (a global consulting firm) and Merrill Lynch found that the ranks of the world's millionaires shrank at the fastest rate ever in 2008, with North America suffering the biggest wealth loss worldwide.

The Capgemini/Merrill Lynch annual "World Wealth Report" notes that the global slump in property and equity markets last year cut the number of millionaires by 15% to 8.6 million, wiping out two years of increases. The value of the world's millionaires' assets fell 20% to $32.8 trillion, after a 9.4% increase in 2007, according to the latest report.

Millionaires' Club Shrank at Record Rate in 2008

The Capgemini/Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report for 2008, which was released last Wednesday, defines a millionaire as someone with a net worth of $1,000,000 excluding the value of their primary residence, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables (ie – liquid assets). The survey is conducted globally each year. The authors use the acronym "HNWI" to represent High Net Worth Individuals who are millionaires, as defined above.

The Report concludes that at the end of 2008, the world's population of HNWIs was down 14.9% from the year before to 8.6 million, and their wealth had dropped 19.5% to $32.8 trillion. The declines were unprecedented, and wiped out two robust years of growth in 2006 and 2007. As a result, the world's population of millionaires and their wealth ended 2008 below levels seen at the close of 2005.

The global population of millionaires had seen robust annual growth of 7.2% on average from 2005 to 2007, before reversing in 2008. The same trend was evident in HNWI financial wealth, which grew 10.4% per year in 2005-07, before the steep contraction.

The most significant declines in the HNWI population in 2008 occurred in the three largest regions: North America (-19.0%), Europe (-14.4%) and Asia-Pacific (-14.2%). But behind the aggregate numbers lie some interesting developments in the HNWI populations of those regions. The authors summarize as follows:

  • The number of HNWIs in the U.S. fell 18.5% in 2008, but the U.S. remains the single largest home to HNWIs, with its 2.5 million HNWIs accounting for 28.7% of the global HNWI population.

  • In Europe, the 14.4% decline in the millionaire population varied widely by country. For example, the number of HNWIs shrank 26.3% in the U.K., but just 12.6% in France and only 2.7% in Germany, which avoided a steep contraction in part because HNWIs there were more heavily invested in conservative asset classes than those in other countries.

  • Japan, which accounts for more than 50% of the HNWIs in the Asia-Pacific region, suffered a relatively mild HNWI decline of 9.9%, but others in the region suffered greater losses, including Hong Kong (-61.3%) and India (-31.6%).

    The apparent resilience of Japan, however, stemmed largely from the fact that the expansion of the HNWI population there had already been capped by the 2007 slowdown in macroeconomic growth and a weakening stock market (market capitalization was down 11.1% in 2007).

 

The Capgemini/Merrill World Wealth Report also surveys the globe for the super-rich, those with at least $30 million in liquid assets, which they refer to as the "Ultra-HNWIs." The contraction in the overall HNWI population was exacerbated by the steeper-than-average decline (globally and regionally) in the number of Ultra-HNWIs.

A decline in Ultra-HNWI numbers has a disproportionate effect on overall HNWI wealth, because so much world wealth is concentrated in their hands. The Report notes that at the end of 2008, Ultra-HNWIs accounted for 34.7% of global HNWI wealth, but only 0.9% of the total HNWI population.

Recall as noted above that the entire world population of HNWIs was down 14.9% in 2008, and their wealth had dropped 19.5% to $32.8 trillion. Yet the world population of Ultra-HNWIs shrank and lost even more. The number of Ultra-HNWIs plunged 24.6% in 2008, and their wealth was down 23.9%. This is very interesting!

The Ultra-HNWIs (those with at least $30 million in liquid assets) should have access to the very best in money management, and they should be highly diversified. Yet they lost more numbers and more wealth than the mere millionaires.

The authors suggest that the sharp decline in the number of Ultra-HNWIs globally largely resulted from that group's "partiality for more aggressive products, which tend to deliver greater-than-average returns in good times, but delivered hefty losses in 2008." While this may have been true in some cases, I strongly suspect that the losses occurred primarily because many millionaires (along with average investors) bought into Wall Street's buy-and-hold mantra, and when the stock markets plunged, so did their assets.

It is also true that some of the most highly sought after, high profile professional money managers lost 40% or more last year. And who knows, they may have had money with Bernie Madoff! I would also suggest that the plunge in oil prices last year played a role in the losses among Ultra-HNWIs, many of whom are Middle East oil sheiks.

Finally, I am sure there will be readers who will respond and ask, Why should I care if a lot of millionaires and super-millionaire fat cats took a beating over the last 18 months; after all, I lost a lot of money in the market as well. To that question, I would simply remind everyone that the wealthy create lots of jobs and pay a lot of taxes (top 5% of taxpayers pay over 60% of all income taxes). To that end, their large loss of wealth will have a negative effect on economic growth and the federal budget deficits.

But at the end of the day, what this demonstrates for all investors is that Wall Street's buy-and-hold mantra was a recipe for huge losses over the last 18 months, just as it was during the last bear market in 2000-2002. Perhaps that is why we are seeing a wave of investors seeking actively managed alternative investment strategies such as those I recommend.

.

 

Conclusions

The bear market in stocks, which saw the S&P 500 Index fall by more than 50% from the peak in late 2007, has certainly inflicted a lot of casualties on the world's millionaires and super-millionaires.

The White House National Economic Council estimates that on a global basis, $50 trillion dollars in wealth has been erased over the last 18 months. This includes $7 trillion dollars in US stock market wealth which has vanished, and $6 trillion dollars in US housing wealth that has been destroyed over that period. These declines were unprecedented, and wiped out two robust years of growth in 2006 and 2007.

In 2008, the world's population of millionaires was down 14.9% from the year before to 8.6 million, and their wealth had dropped 19.5% to $32.8 trillion. The super-millionaires ($30 million or more) fared even worse. The number of super-millionaires plunged 24.6% in 2008, and their wealth was down 23.9%.

.

Sunday, May 24, 2009


Noticias de Okane:
Les anexo los principales indicadores financieros del MUNDO a Mayo 24, 2009.

 

El Viernes 5 de Junio a las 5PM vamos a repetir el curso "HAZTE Millonario"-  www.MillonarioPermanente.com  . Si alguien esta interesado en asistir al curso, les ruego me indique para poderle apartar su lugar. 

 

Como siempres estoy a sus ordenes , para cualquier duda o aclaracion.

Atte.

www.OkaneCapital.com

Tasas en MéxicoEsta
Semana
%
Enero 1ero
2006
%
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
TIIE 28 dias 6.115 8.7 -29.71%
TIIE 91 dias 5.9035 8.74 -32.45%
CPP 4.95 6.02 -17.77%
Cetes 28 Dias 5.54 7.97 -30.49%
Cetes 91 Dias 5.42 8.15 -33.50%
MEXIBOR 3 meses 7.2000 7.2000 0.00%
Tasas en el MundoEsta
Semana
%
Enero 1ero
2006
%
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
Prime Rate 3.25 3.25 0.00%
Fed Funds Rate 0.09 0.09 0.00%
Bono USA 3 meses 0.17 0.07 142.86%
Bono USA 2 años .88 0.76 15.79%
Bono USA 5 años 2.2 1.55 41.94%
Bono USA 10 años 3.16 2.21 42.99%
Bono USA 30 años 4.06 2.68 51.49%
Libor 1 mes .400 0.44 -9.09%
Libor 3 meses .97 1.43 -32.17%
Bolsa de ValoresEsta
Semana
$
Enero 1ero
2006
$
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
IPC 24093.24 22380.32 7.65%
Dow Jones 8277.32 8776.39 -5.69%
S & P 500 887.00 903.25 -1.80%
Nasdaq 100 1692.01 1577.03 7.29%
Merval 1079.66 1079.66 0.00%
Bovespa 50568 37550.31 34.67%
FTSE 100 4365.29 4434.17 -1.55%
Nikkei 9225.81 8859.56 4.13%
Dax 30 4918.75 4810.20 2.26%
Cac 40 3227.97 3217.97 0.31%
Indicadores de ReferenciaEsta
Semana
$
Enero 1ero
2006
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
UDI 4.2613 4.1962 1.55%
INPC 135.61 132.84 2.09%
Inflacion Mexico 12 meses (acum) 6.1733 6.2329 -0.96%
MonedasEsta
Semana
$
Enero 1ero
2006
$
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
Dólar Menudeo 13.3 13.90 -4.32%
Dólar Fix 13.1728 13.83 -4.75%
Dólar 48 Horas 13.1570 13.81 -4.73%
Euro (Europa) US$ 1.3998 1.407 -0.51%
Dolar (Canada) US$ 1.1195 1.2166 -7.98%
Libra (Gran Bretaña) 1.5932 1.4614 9.02%
Yen (Japon) 94.77 90.34 4.90%
Futuros del PesoEsta
Semana
$
Enero 1ero
2006
$
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
SPOT 13.17 13.83 -4.77%
Junio-09 13.21 14.09 -6.25%
Julio-09 13.22 14.51 -8.89%
Ags-09 13.58 14.79 -8.18%
Ene-10 13.58 14.93 -9.04%
Metales / CrudoEsta
Semana
$
Enero 1ero
2006
$
% de cambio
a
Enero 2006
Centenario (pesos) 14500 13100 10.69%
Oro (NY) dólares 956.85 879.98 8.74%
Plata Libertad 190 150 26.67%
Petroleo WTI 61.02 44.60 36.82%
Petroleo Mezcla 57.27 38.75 47.79%
GAS (Henry Hub) 3.42 5.63 -39.25%

Friday, March 20, 2009


Esta es la opinion de un Analista de Monedas de USA:



By Marc Chandler
Mexico to Cut Rates: Peso is a Sell
3/20/2009 7:54 AM EDT

Mexico's central bank is widely expected to cut its overnight rate by 25 bp today. That would bring it to 7.25%. Last month it delivered a 25 bp rate cut too. The market had expected a 50 bp cut and punished the peso in disappointment.

However, the peso has strengthened sharply in recent days-up until yesterday--and this has renewed some speculation of a 50 bp move today. This seems unlikely.

Consumer inflation remains stubborn. It was 6.2% in Feb, having peaked at 6.53% at the end of last year. Mexico's economy is contracting. Domestic demand is weak and of course foreign demand (primarily the US) is poor.

The main sources of capital inflows into Mexico--exports, worker remittances and tourism are drying up. Oil prices are roughly a third of where they were 9 months ago.

Mexico has spent some $20 bln to slow the peso's descent or roughly 5% of its reserves. Central Banker Ortiz is unlikely to risk the new found stability in the currency may cutting rates more aggressively. Given the pass through of a weaker peso on imported inflation and then domestic inflation, means that policy makers think that the stability of the peso is the key to capping inflation.

Mark Twain once said that history doesn't repeat itself but that sometimes it rhymes. In this context, it would suggest that the peso may not sell-off on a 25 bp rate cut like last month.

On the other hand, K Marx said that history repeats itself--the first time as tragedy the second time as farce. That would suggest that the peso might in fact sell-off again.

Technicals are more aligned with the latter scenario. Hourly technical indicators suggest the overnight recovery in the peso has left it over-extended.

Look for the dollar to bounce back from a test on MXN14.10

 

Wednesday, February 4, 2009


Estimados Amigos de Okane.

Me da mucho gusto darles los resultados de Enero 2009.

La bolsa de valores de USA tuvo una bajada del 9%, nosotros en OKANE tuvimos una UTILIDAD de aprox $12,500 USD. En estos momentos no les puedo decir que % de utilidad es sobre el capital invertido, hasta que terminemos de capitalizar las nuevas aportaciones que entraron en este 2009, y ademas saldar el pago de Impuestos por las utilidades del 2008.

Lo positivo es que ganamos dinero. ganamos en dollares y vamos bien.

Les agradezco su confianza..

Como siempre estoy a sus ordenes para cualquier duda o aclaracion.

Atte.

www.OkaneUno.com

 

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