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Monday, August 17, 2009


Esta es la opinion de un muy buen alaista del peso Mexco en USA.

 

he Mexican peso is under pressure today as risk trades are unwound. Despite the peso's 1.15% loss against the dollar today, it remains the best performing major currency against the dollar thus far this month. Several large investment houses have recommended long peso positions to benefit from the healthier appetite for risk or as a way to play the recovery in the US auto sector. We have been more skeptical of the peso and Mexican macro fundamentals. These fundamentals doubts will find support in this week's data, and especially the Q2 GDP figures that are due out later in the week. After an 8.2% annualized contraction in Q1, the consensus expects that the Mexican economy contracted by 10.7% in Q2, while most countries have reported a slowing pace of contraction (US and UK) if not outright expansion (Germany, France and Japan). At the end of the week the central bank meets and is widely expected to leave rates steady at 4.5%. A surprise rate cut would likely be seen as peso negative.

Mexico's Cemex, the largest cement make in the Americas announced a new debt agreement that will extend maturities on about $15 bln of debt for five years. The details appeared to be in line with market expectations. Shareholders will vote on the plan on Sept 4th, according to news wire accounts. The stock is marginally lower today, but holding up better than the Bolsa.

Mexico's weekend decision to replace border guards as the government steps up its anti-corruption campaign is a favorable development, however. The dollar held its 20-day moving average against the peso (~MXN13.10) earlier today and unless this level is convincingly taken out, look for a consolidative phase to emerge.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009


Espero que esta info les sea de utilidad.

 

TIPO DE CAMBIO  DIARIO OFICIAL
EJERCICIO  2009
             
DIAENEROFEBREROMARZOABRILMAYOJUNIOJULIOAGOSTOSEPTIEMBREOCTUBRENOVIEMBREDICIEMBRE
             
1   13.9108 13.155013.0972 
213.7678 15.365013.7924 13.260913.1695 
3 14.540415.337213.6137 13.317213.242813.1293
4 14.466715.2178 13.350013.2675 13.1073
513.550714.294515.2855 13.224213.2768  
613.345814.177815.263313.632513.2268 13.2547 
713.4136  13.571213.1103 13.2724
813.5045  13.364813.106713.450013.4333 

Friday, July 10, 2009


Estimados Amigos de Okane.

Les anexo una opinion de un analista de USA-


USD/MXN
7/10/2009 4:05 PM EDT

Mexican peso is taking it on the chin today, and is amongst the worst EM performers on the day. Fundamental outlook has really deteriorated with the mid-term election win by the PRI, as we believe rating downgrades are now only a matter of time due to the poor fiscal and structural reform outlook.

The technical picture has also worsened today with the break of 1) the June high of 13.7060 and 2) 13.6342 (62% of the April-May drop in USD/MXN), which now targets the April high of 14.1354. GDP contracted 8.2% y/y in Q1, and the central bank warned that GDP could have fallen by as much as 10% y/y in Q2.

We expect full year contraction in 2009 of 8%, and risks are to the downside.

Banco de Mexico meets next Friday and market expects it to cut rates by another 25 bp to 4.5%. We think there is a decent chance of a 50 bp cut then.

Friday, February 27, 2009


Les mando la actualizacion del TIPO de CAMBIO a FEb 2009.

Este año ya llevamos otro10% de devaluacion  y no vemos para cuando esto termne..

DIAENEROFEBRERO
1  
213.7678  
3 14.5404
4 14.4667
513.5507 14.2945
613.3458 14.1778
713.4136  
813.5045  
913.7008 14.1392
10 14.3575
11 14.5313
1213.7608 14.6013
1313.8390 14.4326
1414.1083  
1514.2192  
1613.9058 14.5288
17 14.6118
18 14.6725
1913.9777 14.5505
2013.9382 14.8163
2113.9145  
2213.9325  
2314.0950 14.8528
24 14.8327
25 14.9275
2613.9342 14.9322
2714.1675 15.0698
2814.1513  
2914.1975  
3014.3097  
31  

Monday, February 9, 2009


Les Anexo el Tipo de cambio oficial del USD/MXN para el mes de Enero del 2009.

Saludos..

DIAENERO
1 
213.7678
3 
4 
513.5507
613.3458
713.4136
813.5045
913.7008
10 
11 
1213.7608
1313.8390
1414.1083
1514.2192
1613.9058
17 
18 
1913.9777
2013.9382
2113.9145
2213.9325
2314.0950
24 
25 
2613.9342
2714.1675
2814.1513
2914.1975
3014.3097
31