Esta es la opinion de un muy buen alaista del peso Mexco en USA.
he Mexican peso is under pressure today as risk trades are unwound. Despite the peso's 1.15% loss against the dollar today, it remains the best performing major currency against the dollar thus far this month. Several large investment houses have recommended long peso positions to benefit from the healthier appetite for risk or as a way to play the recovery in the US auto sector. We have been more skeptical of the peso and Mexican macro fundamentals. These fundamentals doubts will find support in this week's data, and especially the Q2 GDP figures that are due out later in the week. After an 8.2% annualized contraction in Q1, the consensus expects that the Mexican economy contracted by 10.7% in Q2, while most countries have reported a slowing pace of contraction (US and UK) if not outright expansion (Germany, France and Japan). At the end of the week the central bank meets and is widely expected to leave rates steady at 4.5%. A surprise rate cut would likely be seen as peso negative.
Mexico's Cemex, the largest cement make in the Americas announced a new debt agreement that will extend maturities on about $15 bln of debt for five years. The details appeared to be in line with market expectations. Shareholders will vote on the plan on Sept 4th, according to news wire accounts. The stock is marginally lower today, but holding up better than the Bolsa.
Mexico's weekend decision to replace border guards as the government steps up its anti-corruption campaign is a favorable development, however. The dollar held its 20-day moving average against the peso (~MXN13.10) earlier today and unless this level is convincingly taken out, look for a consolidative phase to emerge.
Espero que esta info les sea de utilidad.
|TIPO DE CAMBIO DIARIO OFICIAL|
Friday, July 10, 2009
Estimados Amigos de Okane.
Les anexo una opinion de un analista de USA-
Mexican peso is taking it on the chin today, and is amongst the worst EM performers on the day. Fundamental outlook has really deteriorated with the mid-term election win by the PRI, as we believe rating downgrades are now only a matter of time due to the poor fiscal and structural reform outlook.
The technical picture has also worsened today with the break of 1) the June high of 13.7060 and 2) 13.6342 (62% of the April-May drop in USD/MXN), which now targets the April high of 14.1354. GDP contracted 8.2% y/y in Q1, and the central bank warned that GDP could have fallen by as much as 10% y/y in Q2.
We expect full year contraction in 2009 of 8%, and risks are to the downside.
Banco de Mexico meets next Friday and market expects it to cut rates by another 25 bp to 4.5%. We think there is a decent chance of a 50 bp cut then.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Les mando la actualizacion del TIPO de CAMBIO a FEb 2009.
Este año ya llevamos otro10% de devaluacion y no vemos para cuando esto termne..
Monday, February 9, 2009
Les Anexo el Tipo de cambio oficial del USD/MXN para el mes de Enero del 2009.